Gizmodo guide to eBook Readers "they care about"

Gizmodo published a guide to eBook Readers, which is a pretty fair way to do it since there were seemingly 1,500 eReaders announced and/or released over the past few weeks. They sum up some of the pros and cons of each device and offer a survival percentage - the likelihood they think each device has of surviving in the marketplace. When it comes to eReaders, especially those with built in 3G interfaces, I think it's more important to concentrate on the platform's chances of surviving, rather than a specific model. For example, while the original Kindle is long gone - the platform survives and thrives, and users who own it can still buy books easily from their device.

Their survival percentages:

• Nook: 80% (assuming they continue to refine the software and up the manufacturing).
• I think that's a pretty fair estimate, if low perhaps. Barnes and Noble has the look of the device down pat, the retail distribution covered, some partners developing compatible hardware and just needs to tweak the software a bit more.
• Entourage eDGe: 0%
• That might be a bit low, since there has to be say a 1% chance it will thrive in the marketplace, but I really can't argue here either. It's bulky, unwieldy looking and at $500 may end up dangerously close in price to that tablet Apple is very, very likely to introduce.
• Plastic Logic Que: 70%
• I couldn't disagree more. I realize it's geared towards businesses - but between notebooks (and let's face it - the Que isn't going to replace the notebook for every traveller) and smartphones, how many IT budgets are going to support a $650 - $800 tablet that is only good for viewing documents.
• Spring Design Alex Reader: 80%
• I think their number is a bit high - unless they get the price down a bit / convince Borders to subsidize it a bit. In terms of "Kindle-ish-sized devices" it's got the lust factor to me -- it looks a bit nicer and has a lot more functional LCD screen versus the nook. In terms of pricing, it's a bit high, but I'd certainly buy it over the Sony Daily Reader Touch edition for the same price. The Kobo/Borders partnership is a great idea, for sure... I'm just worried about the $399 price tag.
• Sony Reader Daily Edition: 40%
• That seems a bit low. Perhaps the device itself will fail, at $399 without the cool and gimmicky color LCD that Alex and nook carry. I'm not sold on touch being a must have technology, given the reduction in visibility on the e-Ink screen. The only thing, while the device may fail - no doubt Sony remains committed to eReaders, and will probably continue offering models with wireless access built in. Between that, and the ePub compatibility, you're not likely to get "stuck" with a useless product.
• Kindle: 80%
• This is too low. That's like saying it's 80% likely Microsoft Windows will survive as a product. For the next 10 years or so (an eternity in technology and gadgetry), that numbers more like 99.99%. They may cede market share, but the Kindle isn't about to disappear anytime soon.
• Notion Ink Adam Pixel Qi: 40%
• Without seeing the price (and knowing for sure it's truly nearing release) it's hard to say for sure. I don't disqualify it for all it's features that make it compete with Tablet PCs - if it's good for reading, it's a good eReader, and the Pixel Qi technology seems like it could be. This number's probably right, in that it's about 50%/50%.

They also ask what other products deserve to be on the list. I say the Skiff. I'm a sucker for that product, it's the slickest looking eReader-style tablet. Hard to estimate it's chances for survival, however, since we don't know the price, or how well it will do for books (it should be terrific for magazines and newspapers). If it comes out for $400 to $600 (Kindle DX territory) and supports ePub with Adobe DRM I say it has a chance - given enough of a push by Sprint in the marketing end of things. If not, I worry for it's existence.

UPDATE: The Spring Design Alex is $359 - I'd already reported that, but forgot, as apparently did Gizmodo.